Ever since Trump began running for President in 2015 he was a tariffs guy. He proposed an America-first attitude that would use tariffs on imports to encourage domestic production. A tariff is a tax imposed on imported or exported goods. Now that he’s on his way back to the White House, tariffs have been a popular topic of conversation. Will they affect the gun industry?
I don’t want to make this article needlessly political, and I’m not an economist. I’m a dude with a WordPress login and a keyboard. I can guess, or at best, consult and read reports from actual economists. With that said, take me with a grain of salt and a shot of tequila.
The Tariff Hotspots
Trump has specifically mentioned three countries and said he’d introduce tariffs: China, Canada, and Mexico. These aren’t surprising for anyone who has heard him talk. He doesn’t seem keen on our trade deals with Canada and Mexico and has consistently harped on China.
He’s proposed a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico and a 10% tariff on China. Supposedly, these will be his first actions when he is inaugurated on January 20th. Those three countries do produce a number of firearm-related products. Tariffs are often targeted for specific imports, like vehicles, agricultural items, electronics, and the like.
It’s unclear if these will be targeted tariffs or blanket tariffs. They seem to be blanket tariffs, but it remains to be seen. Many have theorized that the proposed rates are intended to be negotiated down, but that’s a theory and not what the President-Elect has stated.
Gun Stuff and Tariffs
Let’s focus on these three countries and assume there is a blanket tariff on all imports from them. First, China makes tons and tons of stuff in the firearms arena. We can’t import most Chinese guns, but shotguns seem to be allowed. No ammo is coming in from China, but tons of small electronics are imported.
Optics, lights, lasers, and more have massively varying qualities. If there is a 10% import tax on the products, we could expect to see a price increase. This might move some of the pricier Holosun products into the Trijicon/Leupold realm.
It will also raise the floor for what we consider to be an affordable optic. Crap-tier stuff would also be a little more expensive. Airsoft guys will be in shambles as Condor gear moves up in price and CVLife red dots skyrocket.
Additionally, we import lead from China, and lead makes ammo, so we might see the price of ammo rise. This might be reaching, but I can see the possibility.
What About Mexico and Canada?
Speaking of lead, we don’t get a ton of gun stuff from Mexico. There isn’t much I can find, but there is Aguila. Aguila produces a variety of ammo types, including some excellent .32 ACP and .32 S&W Long. These tariffs will hurt me personally because I love .32 caliber ammo. They also make primers, and we all know that has been a hassle.
Canada doesn’t have a ton of major firearm imports. Some .22LR rifles from Savage come out of Canada. Rather than major imports, we have smaller, more specialized gear and guns. Cadex Defense, for example, produces high-end precision firearm gear, and so does MDT.
In terms of ammo, we have Sterling and Challenger, which aren’t major ammo importers, but they make mini shells, and that’s all I know about them. Oh, and Elcan comes out of Canada, so Ghost Recon boys will be losing it.
A 25 percent import would mean a major price increase in any of the gun stuff we import from Canada and Mexico. Ammo, in particular, would be brutal, and I couldn’t see myself purchasing my beloved .32 calibers at a 25% increase.
Don’t Panic Yet
The tariffs aren’t in play just yet. I’m not even sure if Executive Actions can pass tariffs. Maybe it is just a negotiating tactic. I wouldn’t panic just yet. We have a little bit to see what deals are possible. If it works out as predicted, then we might see some price increases worth noting. My main concern is ammo, but it’s still not worth panicking over. Yet.
